READY SIGNAL CONTROL DATA

Manufacturers' New Orders: Durable Goods

Why Use This Data Source In Your Models?

Manufacturers' new orders for durable goods reflects new orders placed with manufacturers for delivery of expensive factory goods that last 3 years or more. This indicates economic health and manufacturer behavior in the US.

Manufacturers' New Orders: Durable Goods

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Automated Data Profiling

Ready Signal automatically profiles each data set and offers up suggested industry standard data science treatments to utilize with these data in your models.

Suggested Treatment:

The data shows auto correlation and a non-normal distribution. The data should be differenced. While the Order Norm transformation, provides the best normality, the Boxcox variable will also perform well.

Grain Transformation:

Data is able to be distributed by time but not by geography. The roll up method used is Sum.

Source:
U.S. Census Bureau

Release:
Manufacturers' New Orders

Units:
Millions of dollars, Seasonally Adjusted

Frequency:
Monthly

Available Through:
04/30/2023

Suggested Treatment:

The data shows auto correlation and a non-normal distribution. The data should be differenced. While the Order Norm transformation, provides the best normality, the Boxcox variable will also perform well.

Grain Transformation:

Data is able to be distributed by time but not by geography. The roll up method used is Sum.

Auto Correlation Analysis:

Data shows auto correlation indicating a need for differencing

The ACF indicates 1 order differencing is appropriate.

Following first order differencing, no further differencing is required based on the differenced ACF at lag one of -0.25

Trend Analysis:

The Kwiatkowski-Phillips-Schmidt-Shin (KPSS) test, KPSS Trend = 0.18 p-value = 0.02 indicates that the data is not stationary.

Distribution Analysis:

The Shapiro-Wilk test returned W = 0.97 with a p-value =0.00 indicating the data does not follow a normal distribution.

A skewness score of 0.21 indicates the data are fairly symmetrical.

Hartigan's dip test score of 0.04 with a p-value of 0.26 inidcates the data is unimodal

Statistics (Pearson P/ df, lower => more normal)

No transform
2.90
Box-cox
2.69
Log_b(x-a)
2.74
sqrt(x+a)
2.69
exp(x)
NA
arcsinh(x)
2.74
Yeo-Johnson
2.69
OrderNorm
0.03

Auto Correlation Function

Auto Correlation Function After Differencing

Partial Auto Correlation Function

Seasonal Impact

Seasonal and Trend Decompostion

Citation:

U.S. Census Bureau, Manufacturers' New Orders: Durable Goods [DGORDER], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGORDER, December 15, 2019.

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