Why Use This Data Source In Your Models?
The months' supply is the ratio of houses for sale to houses sold in the US, indicating how long the current for-sale inventory would last given the current sales rate if no additional new houses were built. This is indicative of supply and demand of houses in the US, as well as the overall economic situation.
Supply of Houses in the US - Seas Adj
U.S. Census Bureau
Housing & Urban Development
Months' Supply, Seasonally Adjusted
The data shows auto correlation and a non-normal distribution. The data should be differenced. While the Yeo Johnson transformation, provides the best normality, the Log variable will also perform well.
Data is able to be distributed by time but not by geography. The roll up method used is Sum.
Data shows auto correlation indicating a need for differencing
The ACF indicates 1 order differencing is appropriate.
Following first order differencing, no further differencing is required based on the differenced ACF at lag one of -0.36
The Kwiatkowski-Phillips-Schmidt-Shin (KPSS) test, KPSS Trend = 0.17 p-value = 0.03 indicates that the data is not stationary.
The Shapiro-Wilk test returned W = 0.96 with a p-value =0.01 indicating the data does not follow a normal distribution.
A skewness score of 0.61 indicates the data are moderately skewed.
Hartigan's dip test score of 0.05 with a p-value of 0.13 inidcates the data is unimodal
Auto Correlation Function
Auto Correlation Function After Differencing
Partial Auto Correlation Function
Seasonal and Trend Decompostion
U.S. Census Bureau and U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, Monthly Supply of Houses in the United States [MSACSR], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MSACSR, December 15, 2019.
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