Why Use This Data Source In Your Models?
Real personal consumption expenditures measures the capital spent on goods and services in the US each month. This is indicative of wage rates, disposable income, and financial status of the average citizen. This is also indicative of overall economic health.
All PCE, Real Chained Dollars
U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
Personal Income and Outlays
Billions of Chained 2012 Dollars, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate
The data shows auto correlation and a non-normal distribution. The data should be differenced. While the Order Norm transformation, provides the best normality, the Untransformed variable will also perform well.
Data is able to be distributed by time but not by geography. The roll up method used is Sum.
Data shows auto correlation indicating a need for differencing
The ACF indicates 1 order differencing is appropriate.
Following first order differencing, no further differencing is required based on the differenced ACF at lag one of -0.24
The Kwiatkowski-Phillips-Schmidt-Shin (KPSS) test, KPSS Trend = 0.31 p-value = 0.01 indicates that the data is not stationary.
The Shapiro-Wilk test returned W = 0.93 with a p-value =0.00 indicating the data does not follow a normal distribution.
A skewness score of 0.10 indicates the data are fairly symmetrical.
Hartigan's dip test score of 0.03 with a p-value of 0.85 inidcates the data is unimodal
Auto Correlation Function
Auto Correlation Function After Differencing
Partial Auto Correlation Function
Seasonal and Trend Decompostion
U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Real Personal Consumption Expenditures [PCEC96], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCEC96, December 16, 2019.
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