How Ready Signal Helped Solve a Sales Forecast Anomaly
In the world of consumer packaged goods, accurate sales forecasting is crucial for effective business planning. At Ready Signal, we recently faced an intriguing challenge when our usually reliable forecast model for a major food company’s condensed eating category experienced an unexpected 9% error in February 2025. This deviation from our typical sub-4% error rate prompted us to dig deeper and uncover the external factors at play.
The Power of External Factors
Our forecast model incorporates both internal and external variables to predict sales. While internal factors like pricing and distribution are essential, it’s the external variables that often provide the “why” behind sales fluctuations. These external factors help quantify market forces that were previously relegated to gut feelings or anecdotal evidence.
The February Flu Anomaly
When we approached the client about the February discrepancy, they hypothesized that flu, COVID, or respiratory illnesses might be influencing condensed eating habits. To investigate this theory, we turned to Ready Signal’s data repository and identified a relevant feature: weighted Influenza-Like Illness (ILI) data sourced from the CDC.
Uncovering the Flu Factor
Our analysis revealed a striking pattern:
- February 2025 saw ILI cases peak at 7.24%, the highest level in four years
- This represented a 65% increase from February 2024 (4.38%)
- Compared to February 2023, it was a staggering 184% increase (from 2.55%)
These findings confirmed the client’s suspicion that February 2025 was indeed an abnormal flu season.
Model Improvement
Integrating this flu data into our existing model yielded significant improvements. Our original model showed a significant underprediction; however, when we reran the same model with the inclusion of flu data, we observed improvements of more than 50%.
The Value of Data-Driven Insights
This case study demonstrates the power of transforming hypotheses and “gut feelings” into data-backed decisions. By incorporating relevant external data, we were able to:
- Provide mathematical evidence supporting the client’s theory
- Improve our forecast accuracy significantly
- Help the client better understand the factors affecting their business
Why Ready Signal is the Right Choice
Ready Signal’s extensive database of external factors and our expertise in integrating them into forecasting models make us an ideal partner for businesses seeking to understand and predict market dynamics. Our approach goes beyond internal metrics, allowing companies to:
- Quantify the impact of external forces on their business
- Make more informed, data-driven decisions
- Improve forecast accuracy by considering a broader range of influencing factors
By leveraging Ready Signal’s resources, businesses can transform their “I feel” statements into robust, data-backed strategies, gaining a competitive edge in an ever-changing market landscape.
What mysteries can we help you solve with data-driven solutions?
Further Reading
The New Unemployment: Truck Transportation
New and Used Car Sales: A Window into Economic Health
Data Science and Analytics: Super Charge Your Practice with External Data
