Why Use This Data Source In Your Models?
Initial claims measures the number of unemployment claims filed per week in the US. This is indicative of overall economic health, availability of jobs, and economic resessions/depressions.
Unemployment Claims, Total US - Not Seas Adj
U.S. Employment and Training Administration
Initial Unemployment Claims
Number, Not Seasonally Adjusted
Weekly, Ending Saturday
The data shows auto correlation, seasonality and a non-normal distribution. The data should be differenced and seasonally adjusted. While the Order Norm transformation, provides the best normality, the Arcsin variable will also perform well.
Data is able to be distributed by time but not by geography. The roll up method used is Sum.
Data shows auto correlation indicating a need for differencing
The ACF indicates 1 order differencing is appropriate.
Following first order differencing, no further differencing is required based on the differenced ACF at lag one of -0.16
The Kwiatkowski-Phillips-Schmidt-Shin (KPSS) test, KPSS Trend = 0.07 p-value = 0.10 indicates that the data is stationary.
The Shapiro-Wilk test returned W = 0.93 with a p-value =0.00 indicating the data does not follow a normal distribution.
A skewness score of 1.16 indicates the data are substantially skewed.
Hartigan's dip test score of 0.01 with a p-value of 0.83 inidcates the data is unimodal
Auto Correlation Function
Auto Correlation Function After Differencing
Partial Auto Correlation Function
Seasonal and Trend Decompostion
U.S. Employment and Training Administration, Initial Claims [ICNSA], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ICNSA, December 19, 2019.
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