Trade Balance: Goods and Services, Balance of Payments Basis
Why Use This Data Source In Your Models?
The "Trade Balance: Goods and Services, Balance of Payments Basis" is an important metric in the economy because it shows the difference between what a country exports (sells to other countries) and what it imports (buys from other countries). When a country has a positive trade balance, it means it exports more than it imports, which is often seen as a good thing because it brings in more money from international markets and supports domestic industries and jobs. On the other hand, if a country has a negative trade balance, it means it imports more than it exports, which can lead to concerns about competitiveness and reliance on foreign goods. Policymakers and economists closely monitor this metric as it reflects the country's economic relationships with other nations and can have implications for employment, growth, and the overall health of the economy. It also plays a role in understanding a country's financial and economic position in the global marketplace.
Trade Balance: Goods and Services, Balance of Payments Basis
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Automated Data Profiling
Suggested Treatment:
Grain Transformation:
Source:
Board of Governors of Fed Reserve System
Release:
Foreign Exchange Rates
Units:
Millions of Dollars, Seasonally Adjusted
Frequency:
Monthly
Available Through:
01/31/2025
Suggested Treatment:
The data shows auto correlation and a non-normal distribution. The data should be differenced. While the Exponential transformation, provides the best normality, the Order Norm variable will also perform well.
Grain Transformation:
Data is able to be distributed by time and geography. The roll up method used is Sum.
Auto Correlation Analysis:
Data shows auto correlation indicating a need for differencing
The ACF indicates 1 order differencing is appropriate.
Following first order differencing, no further differencing is required based on the differenced ACF at lag one of -0.39
Trend Analysis:
The Kwiatkowski-Phillips-Schmidt-Shin (KPSS) test, KPSS Trend = 0.42 p-value = 0.01 indicates that the data is not stationary.
Distribution Analysis:
The Shapiro-Wilk test returned W = 0.85 with a p-value =0.00 indicating the data does not follow a normal distribution.
A skewness score of -1.26 indicates the data are substantially skewed.
Hartigan's dip test score of 0.03 with a p-value of 0.50 inidcates the data is unimodal
Statistics (Pearson P/ df, lower => more normal)
Auto Correlation Function
Auto Correlation Function After Differencing
Partial Auto Correlation Function
Seasonal Impact
Seasonal and Trend Decompostion
Citation:
U.S. Census Bureau and U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Trade Balance: Goods and Services, Balance of Payments Basis [BOPGSTB], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BOPGSTB
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