Why Use This Data Source In Your Models?
The total public debt meausres the amount of money that the US government owes to outside entites. This is indicative of ??
Total Public Debt
U.S. Dept. of the Treasury, Fiscal Service
Millions of Dollars, Not Seasonally Adjusted
Quarterly, end of period
The data shows auto correlation and a non-normal distribution. The data should be differenced. While the Boxcox transformation, provides the best normality, the Yeo Johnson variable will also perform well.
Data is able to be distributed by time but not by geography. The roll up method used is Sum.
Data shows auto correlation indicating a need for differencing
The ACF indicates 2 order differencing is appropriate.
Following first order differencing, no further differencing is required based on the differenced ACF at lag one of -0.03
The Kwiatkowski-Phillips-Schmidt-Shin (KPSS) test, KPSS Trend = 0.25 p-value = 0.01 indicates that the data is not stationary.
The Shapiro-Wilk test returned W = 0.89 with a p-value =0.00 indicating the data does not follow a normal distribution.
A skewness score of 0.80 indicates the data are moderately skewed.
Hartigan's dip test score of 0.05 with a p-value of 0.69 inidcates the data is unimodal
Auto Correlation Function
Auto Correlation Function After Differencing
Partial Auto Correlation Function
Seasonal and Trend Decompostion
U.S. Department of the Treasury. Fiscal Service, Federal Debt: Total Public Debt [GFDEBTN], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GFDEBTN, December 19, 2019.
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