Total Public Debt as Percent of GDP
Why Use This Data Source In Your Models?
Total public debt as a percentage of GDP measures the amount of money that the US governemnt owes to outside entities against the total economic output of the US. This is indicative of GDP and public debt levels, as well as the voerall economic situation in the US.
Total Public Debt as Percent of GDP
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Automated Data Profiling
Suggested Treatment:
Grain Transformation:
Source:
U.S. Dept. of the Treasury, Fiscal Service
Release:
Federal Debt
Units:
Percent of GDP, Seasonally Adjusted
Frequency:
Quarterly
Available Through:
12/31/2024
Suggested Treatment:
The data shows auto correlation and a non-normal distribution. The data should be differenced. While the Order Norm transformation, provides the best normality, the Yeo Johnson variable will also perform well.
Grain Transformation:
Data is unable to be distributed by time or geography. The roll up method used is Weighted Average.
Auto Correlation Analysis:
Data shows auto correlation indicating a need for differencing
The ACF indicates 1 order differencing is appropriate.
Following first order differencing, no further differencing is required based on the differenced ACF at lag one of -0.25
Trend Analysis:
The Kwiatkowski-Phillips-Schmidt-Shin (KPSS) test, KPSS Trend = 0.17 p-value = 0.03 indicates that the data is not stationary.
Distribution Analysis:
The Shapiro-Wilk test returned W = 0.74 with a p-value =0.00 indicating the data does not follow a normal distribution.
A skewness score of 1.38 indicates the data are substantially skewed.
Hartigan's dip test score of 0.06 with a p-value of 0.30 inidcates the data is unimodal
Statistics (Pearson P/ df, lower => more normal)
Auto Correlation Function
Auto Correlation Function After Differencing
Partial Auto Correlation Function
Seasonal Impact
Seasonal and Trend Decompostion
Citation:
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis and U.S. Office of Management and Budget, Federal Debt: Total Public Debt as Percent of Gross Domestic Product [GFDEGDQ188S], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GFDEGDQ188S, December 19, 2019.
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