READY SIGNAL CONTROL DATA

Real GDP, Total US, Seas Adj Annual Rate

Why Use This Data Source In Your Models?

Real GDP describes the economic output of the entire US in each quarter. This is indicative of recessions, wages, & the employment situation.

Real GDP, Total US, Seas Adj Annual Rate

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Automated Data Profiling

Ready Signal automatically profiles each data set and offers up suggested industry standard data science treatments to utilize with these data in your models.

Suggested Treatment:

The data shows auto correlation and a non-normal distribution. The data should be differenced. While the Untransformed transformation, provides the best normality, the Arcsin variable will also perform well.

Grain Transformation:

Data is unable to be distributed by time or geography. The roll up method used is Weighted Average.

Source:
U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

Release:
Gross Domestic Product

Units:
Billions of Chained 2012 Dollars, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate

Frequency:
Quarterly

Available Through:
06/30/2022

Suggested Treatment:

The data shows auto correlation and a non-normal distribution. The data should be differenced. While the Untransformed transformation, provides the best normality, the Arcsin variable will also perform well.

Grain Transformation:

Data is unable to be distributed by time or geography. The roll up method used is Weighted Average.

Auto Correlation Analysis:

Data shows auto correlation indicating a need for differencing

The ACF indicates 1 order differencing is appropriate.

Following first order differencing, no further differencing is required based on the differenced ACF at lag one of -0.03

Trend Analysis:

The Kwiatkowski-Phillips-Schmidt-Shin (KPSS) test, KPSS Trend = 0.13 p-value = 0.08 indicates that the data is stationary.

Distribution Analysis:

The Shapiro-Wilk test returned W = 0.94 with a p-value =0.10 indicating the data follows a normal distribution.

A skewness score of 0.12 indicates the data are fairly symmetrical.

Hartigan's dip test score of 0.05 with a p-value of 0.84 inidcates the data is unimodal

Statistics (Pearson P/ df, lower => more normal)

No transform
1.44
Box-cox
1.45
Log_b(x-a)
1.45
sqrt(x+a)
1.45
exp(x)
NA
arcsinh(x)
1.45
Yeo-Johnson
1.45
OrderNorm
1.64

Auto Correlation Function

Auto Correlation Function After Differencing

Partial Auto Correlation Function

Seasonal Impact

Seasonal and Trend Decompostion


Citation:

U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Real Gross Domestic Product [GDPC1], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDPC1, December 19, 2019.

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