Why Use This Data Source In Your Models?
Real GDP describes the economic output of the entire US in each quarter. This is indicative of recessions, wages, & the employment situation.
Real GDP, Total US, Seas Adj Annual Rate
U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
Gross Domestic Product
Billions of Chained 2012 Dollars, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate
The data shows auto correlation and a non-normal distribution. The data should be differenced. While the Untransformed transformation, provides the best normality, the Arcsin variable will also perform well.
Data is unable to be distributed by time or geography. The roll up method used is Weighted Average.
Data shows auto correlation indicating a need for differencing
The ACF indicates 1 order differencing is appropriate.
Following first order differencing, no further differencing is required based on the differenced ACF at lag one of -0.28
The Kwiatkowski-Phillips-Schmidt-Shin (KPSS) test, KPSS Trend = 0.08 p-value = 0.10 indicates that the data is stationary.
The Shapiro-Wilk test returned W = 0.95 with a p-value =0.07 indicating the data follows a normal distribution.
A skewness score of -0.01 indicates the data are fairly symmetrical.
Hartigan's dip test score of 0.04 with a p-value of 0.88 inidcates the data is unimodal
Auto Correlation Function
Auto Correlation Function After Differencing
Partial Auto Correlation Function
Seasonal and Trend Decompostion
U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Real Gross Domestic Product [GDPC1], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDPC1, December 19, 2019.
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