Why Use This Data Source In Your Models?
Real GDP per capita describes the economic output of the entire US in each quarter divided by the number of persons in the US. This is indicative of recessions, wages, & the employment situation.
Real GDP Per Capita, Total US
U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
Gross Domestic Product
Chained 2012 Dollars, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate
The data shows auto correlation and a non-normal distribution. The data should be differenced. While the Arcsin transformation, provides the best normality, the Log variable will also perform well.
Data is able to be distributed by time but not by geography. The roll up method used is Weighted Average.
Data shows auto correlation indicating a need for differencing
The ACF indicates 1 order differencing is appropriate.
Following first order differencing, no further differencing is required based on the differenced ACF at lag one of -0.02
The Kwiatkowski-Phillips-Schmidt-Shin (KPSS) test, KPSS Trend = 0.14 p-value = 0.06 indicates that the data is stationary.
The Shapiro-Wilk test returned W = 0.94 with a p-value =0.07 indicating the data follows a normal distribution.
A skewness score of 0.18 indicates the data are fairly symmetrical.
Hartigan's dip test score of 0.06 with a p-value of 0.51 inidcates the data is unimodal
Auto Correlation Function
Auto Correlation Function After Differencing
Partial Auto Correlation Function
Seasonal and Trend Decompostion
U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Real gross domestic product per capita [A939RX0Q048SBEA], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/A939RX0Q048SBEA, December 19, 2019.
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