Why Use This Data Source In Your Models?
New private housing units authorized by building permits provides a general indication of the amount of new housing stock that may have been added to the housing inventory. Since not all permits become actual housing starts and starts lag the permit stage of construction, these numbers do not represent total new construction, but should provide a general indicator.
New Private Housing Units, Total US - Not Seas Adj
U.S. Census Bureau
Housing & Urban Development
Thousands of Units, Not Seasonally Adjusted
The data shows auto correlation and a non-normal distribution. The data should be differenced. While the Order Norm transformation, provides the best normality, the Boxcox variable will also perform well.
Data is able to be distributed by time but not by geography. The roll up method used is Sum.
Data shows auto correlation indicating a need for differencing
The ACF indicates 1 order differencing is appropriate.
Following first order differencing, no further differencing is required based on the differenced ACF at lag one of -0.37
The Kwiatkowski-Phillips-Schmidt-Shin (KPSS) test, KPSS Trend = 0.08 p-value = 0.10 indicates that the data is stationary.
The Shapiro-Wilk test returned W = 0.99 with a p-value =0.27 indicating the data follows a normal distribution.
A skewness score of 0.19 indicates the data are fairly symmetrical.
Hartigan's dip test score of 0.02 with a p-value of 0.90 inidcates the data is unimodal
Auto Correlation Function
Auto Correlation Function After Differencing
Partial Auto Correlation Function
Seasonal and Trend Decompostion
U.S. Census Bureau and U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, New Private Housing Units Authorized by Building Permits [PERMITNSA], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PERMITNSA, December 15, 2019.
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