Why Use This Data Source In Your Models?
New privately owned housing units started indicates the amount of new housing stock added to the housing inventory. This is indicative of total new construction, and provides a general indicator on construction activity and the real estate market in the US.
New Private Housing Units Started - Not Seas Adj
U.S. Census Bureau
Housing & Urban Development
Thousands of Units, Seasonally Adjusted
The data shows auto correlation, seasonality and a non-normal distribution. The data should be differenced and seasonally adjusted. While the Untransformed transformation, provides the best normality, the Order Norm variable will also perform well.
Data is able to be distributed by time but not by geography. The roll up method used is Sum.
Data shows auto correlation indicating a need for differencing
The ACF indicates 1 order differencing is appropriate.
Following first order differencing, no further differencing is required based on the differenced ACF at lag one of -0.08
The Kwiatkowski-Phillips-Schmidt-Shin (KPSS) test, KPSS Trend = 0.10 p-value = 0.10 indicates that the data is stationary.
The Shapiro-Wilk test returned W = 0.97 with a p-value =0.02 indicating the data does not follow a normal distribution.
A skewness score of -0.23 indicates the data are fairly symmetrical.
Hartigan's dip test score of 0.04 with a p-value of 0.43 inidcates the data is unimodal
Auto Correlation Function
Auto Correlation Function After Differencing
Partial Auto Correlation Function
Seasonal and Trend Decompostion
U.S. Census Bureau and U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, Housing Starts: Total: New Privately Owned Housing Units Started [HOUST], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HOUST, December 15, 2019.
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