Why Use This Data Source In Your Models?
The long-term natural rate of unemployment measures the rate of unemployment arising from all sources except fluctuations in aggregate demand. This indicates GDP levels and long-term economic health.
Natural Unemployment Rate: Long-term, Total US
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Percent, Not Seasonally Adjusted
The data shows auto correlation and a non-normal distribution. The data should be differenced. While the Arcsin transformation, provides the best normality, the Exponential variable will also perform well.
Data is unable to be distributed by time or geography. The roll up method used is Weighted Average.
Data shows auto correlation indicating a need for differencing
The ACF indicates 2 order differencing is appropriate.
Further differencing is reccommended
The Kwiatkowski-Phillips-Schmidt-Shin (KPSS) test, KPSS Trend = 0.49 p-value = 0.01 indicates that the data is not stationary.
The Shapiro-Wilk test returned W = 0.94 with a p-value =0.00 indicating the data does not follow a normal distribution.
A skewness score of 0.36 indicates the data are fairly symmetrical.
Hartigan's dip test score of 0.02 with a p-value of 0.99 inidcates the data is unimodal
Auto Correlation Function
Auto Correlation Function After Differencing
Partial Auto Correlation Function
Seasonal and Trend Decompostion
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Unemployment Rate: 20 years and over, Black or African American Men [LNS14000031], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS14000031, December 19, 2019.
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