Manufacturers' New Orders: Non-defense Capital Goods (Non-Aircraft)
Why Use This Data Source In Your Models?
Manufacturers' new orders for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft reflects new orders placed with manufacturers for delivery of factory goods not used for defense or aircraft. This indicates economic health and manufacturer behavior in the US.
Manufacturers' New Orders: Non-defense Capital Goods (Non-Aircraft)
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Suggested Treatment:
Grain Transformation:
Source:
U.S. Census Bureau
Release:
Manufacturers' New Orders
Units:
Millions of dollars, Seasonally Adjusted
Frequency:
Monthly
Available Through:
03/31/2025
Suggested Treatment:
The data shows auto correlation and a non-normal distribution. The data should be differenced. While the Order Norm transformation, provides the best normality, the Yeo Johnson variable will also perform well.
Grain Transformation:
Data is able to be distributed by time and geography. The roll up method used is Sum.
Auto Correlation Analysis:
Data shows auto correlation indicating a need for differencing
The ACF indicates 1 order differencing is appropriate.
Following first order differencing, no further differencing is required based on the differenced ACF at lag one of -0.08
Trend Analysis:
The Kwiatkowski-Phillips-Schmidt-Shin (KPSS) test, KPSS Trend = 0.55 p-value = 0.01 indicates that the data is not stationary.
Distribution Analysis:
The Shapiro-Wilk test returned W = 0.95 with a p-value =0.00 indicating the data does not follow a normal distribution.
A skewness score of 0.71 indicates the data are moderately skewed.
Hartigan's dip test score of 0.03 with a p-value of 0.84 inidcates the data is unimodal
Statistics (Pearson P/ df, lower => more normal)
Auto Correlation Function
Auto Correlation Function After Differencing
Partial Auto Correlation Function
Seasonal Impact
Seasonal and Trend Decompostion
Citation:
U.S. Census Bureau, Manufacturers' New Orders: Nondefense Capital Goods Excluding Aircraft [NEWORDER], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NEWORDER, December 15, 2019
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