Why Use This Data Source In Your Models?
Manufacturers' new orders for durable goods reflects new orders placed with manufacturers for delivery of expensive factory goods that last 3 years or more. This indicates economic health and manufacturer behavior in the US.
Manufacturers' New Orders: Durable Goods
U.S. Census Bureau
Manufacturers' New Orders
Millions of dollars, Seasonally Adjusted
The data shows auto correlation and a non-normal distribution. The data should be differenced. While the Order Norm transformation, provides the best normality, the Boxcox variable will also perform well.
Data is able to be distributed by time but not by geography. The roll up method used is Sum.
Data shows auto correlation indicating a need for differencing
The ACF indicates 1 order differencing is appropriate.
Following first order differencing, no further differencing is required based on the differenced ACF at lag one of -0.45
The Kwiatkowski-Phillips-Schmidt-Shin (KPSS) test, KPSS Trend = 0.32 p-value = 0.01 indicates that the data is not stationary.
The Shapiro-Wilk test returned W = 0.93 with a p-value =0.00 indicating the data does not follow a normal distribution.
A skewness score of 0.96 indicates the data are moderately skewed.
Hartigan's dip test score of 0.04 with a p-value of 0.55 inidcates the data is unimodal
Auto Correlation Function
Auto Correlation Function After Differencing
Partial Auto Correlation Function
Seasonal and Trend Decompostion
U.S. Census Bureau, Manufacturers' New Orders: Durable Goods [DGORDER], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGORDER, December 15, 2019.
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