READY SIGNAL CONTROL DATA

M1 Money Stock - Not Seas Adj

Why Use This Data Source In Your Models?

M1 is a narrow measure of the money supply that includes physical currency, demand deposits, traveler’s checks, and other checkable deposits. This is indicative of income and assets in the US.

M1 Money Stock - Not Seas Adj

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Suggested Treatment:

The data shows auto correlation and a non-normal distribution. The data should be differenced. While the Order Norm transformation, provides the best normality, the Yeo Johnson variable will also perform well.

Grain Transformation:

Data is unable to be distributed by time or geography. The roll up method used is Weighted Average.

Source:
Board of Governors of Fed Reserve System

Release:
Money Stock Measures

Units:
Billions of Dollars, Not Seasonally Adjusted

Frequency:
Weekly, ending Monday

Available Through:
05/07/2023

Suggested Treatment:

The data shows auto correlation and a non-normal distribution. The data should be differenced. While the Order Norm transformation, provides the best normality, the Yeo Johnson variable will also perform well.

Grain Transformation:

Data is unable to be distributed by time or geography. The roll up method used is Weighted Average.

Auto Correlation Analysis:

Data shows auto correlation indicating a need for differencing

The ACF indicates 1 order differencing is appropriate.

Further differencing is reccommended

Trend Analysis:

The Kwiatkowski-Phillips-Schmidt-Shin (KPSS) test, KPSS Trend = 1.52 p-value = 0.01 indicates that the data is not stationary.

Distribution Analysis:

The Shapiro-Wilk test returned W = 0.61 with a p-value =0.00 indicating the data does not follow a normal distribution.

A skewness score of 1.29 indicates the data are substantially skewed.

Hartigan's dip test score of 0.08 with a p-value of 0.00 inidcates the data is multimodal

Statistics (Pearson P/ df, lower => more normal)

No transform
119.30
Box-cox
5.75
Log_b(x-a)
11.68
sqrt(x+a)
17.42
exp(x)
NA
arcsinh(x)
11.68
Yeo-Johnson
5.34
OrderNorm
1.21

Auto Correlation Function

Auto Correlation Function After Differencing

Partial Auto Correlation Function

Seasonal Impact

Seasonal and Trend Decompostion

Citation:

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US), M1 Money Stock [WM1NS], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WM1NS, December 19, 2019.

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