Leading Index by US State
Why Use This Data Source In Your Models?
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index is an American economic leading indicator derived from ten key variables. Data scientists use this to forecast future economic activity.
Leading Index by US State
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Suggested Treatment:
Grain Transformation:
Source:
Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia
Release:
Leading Index
Units:
Percent, Seasonally Adjusted
Frequency:
Monthly
Available Through:
02/29/2020
Suggested Treatment:
The data shows auto correlation and a non-normal distribution. The data should be differenced. While the Order Norm transformation, provides the best normality, the Square Root variable will also perform well.
Grain Transformation:
Data is unable to be distributed by time or geography. The roll up method used is Weighted Average.
Auto Correlation Analysis:
Data shows auto correlation indicating a need for differencing
The ACF indicates 1 order differencing is appropriate.
Following first order differencing, no further differencing is required based on the differenced ACF at lag one of -0.11
Trend Analysis:
The Kwiatkowski-Phillips-Schmidt-Shin (KPSS) test, KPSS Trend = 0.13 p-value = 0.09 indicates that the data is stationary.
Distribution Analysis:
The Shapiro-Wilk test returned W = 0.98 with a p-value =0.23 indicating the data follows a normal distribution.
A skewness score of 0.08 indicates the data are fairly symmetrical.
Hartigan's dip test score of 0.03 with a p-value of 0.75 inidcates the data is unimodal
Statistics (Pearson P/ df, lower => more normal)
Auto Correlation Function
Auto Correlation Function After Differencing
Partial Auto Correlation Function
Seasonal Impact
Seasonal and Trend Decompostion
Data Notes:
The following states do not report for this feature: District of Columbia, Puerto Rico.
Citation:
Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Leading Index, retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; January 27, 2020.