Why Use This Data Source In Your Models?
Real GDP describes the economic output of the entire US in each quarter. This is indicative of recessions, wages, & the employment situation.
GDP, Total US - Seas Adj Annual Rate
U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
Gross Domestic Product
Billions of Dollars, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate
The data shows auto correlation and a non-normal distribution. The data should be differenced. While the Square Root transformation, provides the best normality, the Arcsin variable will also perform well.
Data is able to be distributed by time but not by geography. The roll up method used is Sum.
Data shows auto correlation indicating a need for differencing
The ACF indicates 1 order differencing is appropriate.
Further differencing is reccommended
The Kwiatkowski-Phillips-Schmidt-Shin (KPSS) test, KPSS Trend = 0.23 p-value = 0.01 indicates that the data is not stationary.
The Shapiro-Wilk test returned W = 0.95 with a p-value =0.15 indicating the data follows a normal distribution.
A skewness score of 0.23 indicates the data are fairly symmetrical.
Hartigan's dip test score of 0.04 with a p-value of 0.97 inidcates the data is unimodal
Auto Correlation Function
Auto Correlation Function After Differencing
Partial Auto Correlation Function
Seasonal and Trend Decompostion
U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Gross Domestic Product [GDP], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDP, December 19, 2019.
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