GDP, Total US - Seas Adj Annual Rate
Why Use This Data Source In Your Models?
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the United States, adjusted for seasonal fluctuations, stands as a cornerstone metric for economists, policymakers, and businesses alike. This figure represents the total monetary value of all goods and services produced within the country's borders, providing a comprehensive snapshot of the nation's economic health. GDP is indicative of recessions, wages, & the employment situation. Data scientists rely on GDP data to analyze long-term economic trends, offering invaluable insights into the economy's growth trajectory and stability. Policymakers utilize this metric to formulate fiscal and monetary policies, ensuring they align with the nation's economic performance. For businesses, GDP data serves as a critical indicator of market demand, aiding in strategic planning and investment decisions. Additionally, investors use GDP figures to assess overall economic vitality, guiding them in portfolio management. Economists rely on this data to compare economic performance globally and to make predictions about future economic developments. In essence, GDP, Total US - Seas Adj Annual Rate, offers a panoramic view of the nation's economic landscape, empowering stakeholders to make informed decisions and navigate the complexities of the ever-changing economic environment.
GDP, Total US - Seas Adj Annual Rate
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Suggested Treatment:
Grain Transformation:
Source:
U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
Release:
Gross Domestic Product
Units:
Billions of Dollars, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate
Frequency:
Quarterly
Available Through:
03/31/2025
Suggested Treatment:
The data shows auto correlation and a non-normal distribution. The data should be differenced. While the Untransformed transformation, provides the best normality, the Yeo Johnson variable will also perform well.
Grain Transformation:
Data is able to be distributed by time and geography. The roll up method used is Sum.
Auto Correlation Analysis:
Data shows auto correlation indicating a need for differencing
The ACF indicates 1 order differencing is appropriate.
Following first order differencing, no further differencing is required based on the differenced ACF at lag one of -0.13
Trend Analysis:
The Kwiatkowski-Phillips-Schmidt-Shin (KPSS) test, KPSS Trend = 0.12 p-value = 0.10 indicates that the data is stationary.
Distribution Analysis:
The Shapiro-Wilk test returned W = 0.95 with a p-value =0.08 indicating the data follows a normal distribution.
A skewness score of 0.53 indicates the data are moderately skewed.
Hartigan's dip test score of 0.04 with a p-value of 0.90 inidcates the data is unimodal
Statistics (Pearson P/ df, lower => more normal)
Auto Correlation Function
Auto Correlation Function After Differencing
Partial Auto Correlation Function
Seasonal Impact
Seasonal and Trend Decompostion
Citation:
U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Gross Domestic Product [GDP], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDP, December 19, 2019.