Why Use This Data Source In Your Models?
The consumer price index is an index of the variation in prices paid by typical consumers for all items less food and energy. This describes the overall economic situation, and supply and demand of all goods, less food and energy, in the US.
CPI (Urban): All Items Less Food & Energy
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Consumer Price Index
Index 1982-1984=100, Seasonally Adjusted
The data shows auto correlation and a non-normal distribution. The data should be differenced. While the Order Norm transformation, provides the best normality, the Yeo Johnson variable will also perform well.
Data is unable to be distributed by time or geography. The roll up method used is Weighted Average.
Data shows auto correlation indicating a need for differencing
The ACF indicates 2 order differencing is appropriate.
Further differencing is reccommended
The Kwiatkowski-Phillips-Schmidt-Shin (KPSS) test, KPSS Trend = 0.43 p-value = 0.01 indicates that the data is not stationary.
The Shapiro-Wilk test returned W = 0.95 with a p-value =0.00 indicating the data does not follow a normal distribution.
A skewness score of 0.59 indicates the data are moderately skewed.
Hartigan's dip test score of 0.02 with a p-value of 0.99 inidcates the data is unimodal
Auto Correlation Function
Auto Correlation Function After Differencing
Partial Auto Correlation Function
Seasonal and Trend Decompostion
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items Less Food and Energy in U.S. City Average [CPILFESL], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPILFESL, December 13, 2019.
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