All PCE, Real Chained Dollars
Why Use This Data Source In Your Models?
Real personal consumption expenditures measures the capital spent on goods and services in the US each month. This is indicative of wage rates, disposable income, and financial status of the average citizen. This is also indicative of overall economic health.
All PCE, Real Chained Dollars
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Suggested Treatment:
Grain Transformation:
Source:
U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
Release:
Personal Income and Outlays
Units:
Billions of Chained 2012 Dollars, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate
Frequency:
Monthly
Available Through:
03/31/2025
Suggested Treatment:
The data shows auto correlation and a non-normal distribution. The data should be differenced. While the Order Norm transformation, provides the best normality, the Square Root variable will also perform well.
Grain Transformation:
Data is able to be distributed by time and geography. The roll up method used is Sum.
Auto Correlation Analysis:
Data shows auto correlation indicating a need for differencing
The ACF indicates 1 order differencing is appropriate.
Further differencing is reccommended
Trend Analysis:
The Kwiatkowski-Phillips-Schmidt-Shin (KPSS) test, KPSS Trend = 0.13 p-value = 0.08 indicates that the data is stationary.
Distribution Analysis:
The Shapiro-Wilk test returned W = 0.95 with a p-value =0.00 indicating the data does not follow a normal distribution.
A skewness score of 0.01 indicates the data are fairly symmetrical.
Hartigan's dip test score of 0.04 with a p-value of 0.10 inidcates the data is unimodal
Statistics (Pearson P/ df, lower => more normal)
Auto Correlation Function
Auto Correlation Function After Differencing
Partial Auto Correlation Function
Seasonal Impact
Seasonal and Trend Decompostion
Citation:
U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Real Personal Consumption Expenditures [PCEC96], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCEC96, December 16, 2019.
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