Why Use This Data Source In Your Models?
4-week moving average of initial claims measures the average number of unemployment claims filed per week in the US for the past 4 weeks. This is indicative of overall economic health, availability of jobs, and economic resessions/depressions, and can provide a more stable value than the per week datasets as it smooths out short term fluctuations.
4-Week Moving Avg of Initial Unemployment Claims
U.S. Employment and Training Administration
Initial Unemployment Claims
Number, Seasonally Adjusted
Weekly, Ending Saturday
The data shows auto correlation and a non-normal distribution. The data should be differenced. While the Order Norm transformation, provides the best normality, the Boxcox variable will also perform well.
Data is able to be distributed by time but not by geography. The roll up method used is Sum.
Data shows auto correlation indicating a need for differencing
The ACF indicates 1 order differencing is appropriate.
Further differencing is reccommended
The Kwiatkowski-Phillips-Schmidt-Shin (KPSS) test, KPSS Trend = 0.94 p-value = 0.01 indicates that the data is not stationary.
The Shapiro-Wilk test returned W = 0.92 with a p-value =0.00 indicating the data does not follow a normal distribution.
A skewness score of 0.47 indicates the data are fairly symmetrical.
Hartigan's dip test score of 0.03 with a p-value of 0.03 inidcates the data is multimodal
Auto Correlation Function
Auto Correlation Function After Differencing
Partial Auto Correlation Function
Seasonal and Trend Decompostion
U.S. Employment and Training Administration, 4-Week Moving Average of Initial Claims [IC4WSA], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IC4WSA, December 16, 2019.
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