4-Week Moving Avg of Initial Unemployment Claims
Why Use This Data Source In Your Models?
4-week moving average of initial claims measures the average number of unemployment claims filed per week in the US for the past 4 weeks. This is indicative of overall economic health, availability of jobs, and economic resessions/depressions, and can provide a more stable value than the per week datasets as it smooths out short term fluctuations.
4-Week Moving Avg of Initial Unemployment Claims
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Automated Data Profiling
Suggested Treatment:
Grain Transformation:
Source:
U.S. Employment and Training Administration
Release:
Initial Unemployment Claims
Units:
Number, Seasonally Adjusted
Frequency:
Weekly, Ending Saturday
Available Through:
04/19/2024
Suggested Treatment:
The data shows auto correlation and a non-normal distribution. The data should be differenced. While the Order Norm transformation, provides the best normality, the Yeo Johnson variable will also perform well.
Grain Transformation:
Data is able to be distributed by geography but not by time. The roll up method used is Sum.
Auto Correlation Analysis:
Data shows auto correlation indicating a need for differencing
The ACF indicates 1 order differencing is appropriate.
Further differencing is reccommended
Trend Analysis:
The Kwiatkowski-Phillips-Schmidt-Shin (KPSS) test, KPSS Trend = 0.21 p-value = 0.01 indicates that the data is not stationary.
Distribution Analysis:
The Shapiro-Wilk test returned W = 0.34 with a p-value =0.00 indicating the data does not follow a normal distribution.
A skewness score of 6.57 indicates the data are substantially skewed.
Hartigan's dip test score of 0.02 with a p-value of 0.32 inidcates the data is unimodal
Statistics (Pearson P/ df, lower => more normal)
Auto Correlation Function
Auto Correlation Function After Differencing
Partial Auto Correlation Function
Seasonal Impact
Seasonal and Trend Decompostion
Citation:
U.S. Employment and Training Administration, 4-Week Moving Average of Initial Claims [IC4WSA], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IC4WSA, December 16, 2019.