Retail sales offer a snapshot of consumer spending and overall economic activity. As consumer spending accounts for a significant portion of GDP, trends in retail sales can provide early signals of economic expansion or contraction.
What Are Retail Sales?
Retail sales measure the total value of goods sold in retail stores, covering categories such as clothing, electronics, food, and online shopping. The data is compiled monthly by government agencies, such as the U.S. Census Bureau, and adjusted for seasonal fluctuations and inflation to present a clearer picture of real spending trends.
Core Retail Sales: A Clearer View
Core retail sales—excluding volatile categories like motor vehicles and parts—serve as a cornerstone for understanding U.S. consumer spending. This data series not only offers a more stable measure of retail activity but also provides valuable insights into the shifting economic landscape. Beneath the headline resilience often attributed to aggregate retail sales lie nuanced patterns that reveal much about consumer behavior and broader economic trends.
Recent Trends in Retail Sales
Retail sales in recent years have been influenced by a combination of factors, from the pandemic’s initial shock to post-pandemic recovery, inflationary pressures, and shifts in consumer habits. While spending initially plummeted during lockdowns, it quickly rebounded as government stimulus programs, increased savings, and pent-up demand helped fuel consumer activity.
Inflation
A crucial aspect to consider in the analysis of core retail sales is how inflation affects consumer behavior. While nominal retail sales may appear strong, inflation-adjusted data reveals that real spending growth is often slower than it initially seems. Inflation disproportionately impacts lower-income households, which have seen a more significant reduction in purchasing power. This creates a divergence in retail spending growth between income groups, highlighting the need for nuanced analysis beyond just headline retail data.
Core Retail Sales as a Diagnostic Tool
Core retail sales are more than a data series—they are a diagnostic tool for assessing the health of consumer spending, the backbone of the U.S. economy. By bridging the macro with the micro, core retail sales provide a vital barometer for economists, businesses, and policymakers seeking to navigate an ever-evolving economic landscape.
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Ready Signal is your source for easy-to-use external indicators for decision-making that considers external factors. Find retail sales and more in our curated data catalog, featuring the most relevant external factors. Please browse our Data Catalog | Ready Signal
A Sample of Retail-Specific Data Sets
Retail Sales Excluding Food Service – Seas Adj | Ready Signal
Heavy Weight Truck Retail Sales – Seas Adj | Ready Signal
US Regular All Formulations Gas Price | Ready Signal
